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trump pressures ducey to bend over and take a viral load  

nosnowforme 64F  
368 posts
5/7/2020 6:12 am
trump pressures ducey to bend over and take a viral load

Hours after Doug Ducey, the Republican governor of Arizona, accelerated plans reopen businesses, saying the state was “headed in the right direction,” his administration halted the work of a team of experts projecting it was on a different — and much grimmer — course.

On Monday night, the eve of president trump’s visit the state, Ducey’s health department shut down the work of academic experts predicting the peak of the state’s coronavirus outbreak was still about weeks away.

“We’ve been asked by Department leadership ‘pause’ all current work on projections and modeling,” Steven Bailey, the bureau chief for public health statistics at the Arizona Department of Health Services, wrote the modeling team, composed of professionals from Arizona State University and the University of Arizona, according email correspondence reviewed by The Washington Post.

The move to sideline academic experts in the middle of the pandemic reflects growing friction between plans to resume economic activity and the analysis of epidemiologists that underscores the dangers of rolling back restrictions. Officials in Arizona said they would rely on “real-time” information, as well as modeling conducted by federal agencies, which is not released publicly.

During his visit to Arizona on Tuesday, trump pressed states to pursue aggressive reopening strategies even as he acknowledged “some people will be affected badly.” Governors from Georgia to Iowa have stepped ahead of the recommendations of doctors and epidemiologists in their states, beginning phased reopenings before they met the administration’s nonbinding guidelines. Recent polling suggests they have done so against the wishes of most Americans, who support sweeping precautions to slow the spread of the virus.

But experts said Arizona’s dismissal of academics, whose analysis seems at odds with the state’s approach, marked an alarming turn against data-informed decision-making.

“The approach seems to be, ‘Shoot the — and quick,’ ” said Josiah D. Rich, an epidemiologist at Brown University.

The Arizona health department was pulling back “the special data sets which have been shared under this public health emergency effort,” according the Monday email from Bailey, which was first reported by an ABC affiliate in Phoenix.

The decision represented an abrupt turnaround from the state’s request for expert input about six weeks ago, when Bailey vowed the modelers would have “full, unfettered access confidential . . . data from the Department.”

“This is a situation that is unprecedented in living memory, and it is going become rapidly more dire in the coming days,” he wrote in previously unreported correspondence. “I cannot, therefore, overemphasize the importance of what we are requesting here.”
The move also troubled some federal lawmakers. “We can’t just remove scientific data and bury facts when it contradicts an agenda or narrative,” said Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.).

Will Humble, a former Arizona health director, said he was concerned by the timing of the abrupt suspension of the modeling work — hours after Ducey had announced plans to ease restrictions on restaurants and barbershops, among other retailers.
Several members of the modeling group, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of concerns about professional retribution, said the work was halted without advance notice. One said the timing of the president’s visit to the state was suspicious.
“The optics don’t look good,” the academic said.
Reached by phone, Bailey, the email’s author, declined to comment. He wrote in his Monday email that the partnership with the academics, who were volunteering their time, might resume with the onset of flu season later in the year.

Patrick Ptak, a spokesman for the governor, said the department’s determination “had nothing to do with” the president’s travel to Arizona, or the governor’s Monday announcement about new steps in the state’s gradual reopening. He said the decision was made by the state’s health director, Cara Christ, “after reviewing all of the data.”
Going forward, Arizona will use modeling developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that “ensures our hospitals have capacity for any situation,” Ptak said.

But Humble said the state is eluding accountability by relying on nonpublic modeling. The academic partnership yielded public reports, the most recent of which predicted that the state’s peak of cases would not arrive before mid-May.
Ptak said the state is working to see if Arizona-specific projections can be made public.

“Good practice is always to use multiple models and multiple inputs,” said Elizabeth Carlton, an assistant professor of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health. “A smart state program will consult a lot of different data sources.”

Efforts in other states to selectively interpret and display coronavirus cases to suit political ends are also raising concerns among epidemiologists.
Iowa experts who presented the state with models saying it was too early to reopen said they were ignored.


s2ndegree 61M  
9740 posts
5/9/2020 8:45 am

And all of this surprises you?I'm shocked!

Using more than all the road!


nosnowforme replies on 5/11/2020 6:52 am:
¿

thikhead 63M
3154 posts
5/8/2020 10:53 am

QUOTING: nosnowforme replies on 5/7/2020 8:40 pm: Always good to have your thick head poking things

your posts are always well-researched and well-written.
i have little tolerance for those whose responses
rely on brain-washed repetition of lies, misinformation, insults,
including projecting an imaginary mental disorder, TDS, on others,
and worst of all, repeating mindless slogans that a parrot could repeat.

i stand by you and with you. period.

"well only get through this if we work together. if we dont, none of us will"


nosnowforme replies on 5/8/2020 12:06 pm:
word is trump has the covid, and the body double is standing in again ...only days to live

jajo696 65F
2364 posts
5/7/2020 1:11 pm

Well here is Massachusetts the golf courses open today with restrictions. Slowly trying to re open...

What happened to Sara Sanders Huckabee? He has a new press secretary...a Blonde woman. Seems he cant retain folks....I wonder why?? lol


kzoopair 69M/67F
25795 posts
5/7/2020 10:58 am

I suppose the nightmare that's happening right now could have been predicted. Oh wait- it was! What we really didn't predict though was how craven Republicans would be when faced with a choice between personal convenience and cash versus public health and safety. That SHOULD have been predicted but most of us have trouble wrapping our heads around the obvious fact that there's no bottom to it. Theres no level beneath which they won't sink. I pretty much ran out of hyperbole during the 2016 election campaign. Now I've nearly run out of adjectives and insults. I reckon speechless is next on the agenda.

Become a member now and get a free tote bag.


nosnowforme replies on 5/7/2020 5:38 pm:
He can beat my best
His disciples lead him in
And he just does the rest
He's got crazy flipper fingers
Never seen him fall
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball

thikhead 63M
3154 posts
5/7/2020 10:43 am

    Quoting  :

"lots of governors" want to reopen - yes, ALL do.

but it seems the ones who want to ignore medical advise
(even that of the white house pandemic team)
and do it sooner tend to be republicans.

think thats any coincindence when you look at how much more support
republicans governors got from trump,
and how much more difficult trump made it for democratic governors?

and the constitution? trump RIPPED UP the constitution
pressuring the republican-controlled senate
to disallow witnesses and evidence from his ukraine trial.

no witnesses nor evidence allowed?
and he brags that he was "acquitted"?

there is no possible discussion about the constitution
beyond that ultimate abuse.

and trump backhandedly "dismisses" the ONE charge against biden
in the hopes that it will exonerate him
from the TWO DOZEN against HIM?

biden may not be pure, but at least your LIFE matters to him,
NOT just your vote, "live or let die".
he brings a step away from trumpism,
and thats a start we need to take.

third-party we can talk about once were not a facist nation anymore

"well only get through this if we work together. if we dont, none of us will"


nosnowforme replies on 5/7/2020 5:40 pm:
Always good to have your thick head poking things

Kalbi54 65M
1241 posts
5/7/2020 7:46 am

There is the COVID website that pulls in data from each state. I'll admit it is only as good as the data it receives but it does have historical info:
https://covidtracking.com/data
It is still trending upwards


nosnowforme replies on 5/7/2020 9:05 am:
the real problem is the data trump et al isnt sharing

nosnowforme 64F  
345 posts
5/7/2020 6:14 am

ducey, you are such as disappointment to humanity


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